I am a former British diplomat who served in New York, Taiwan, Beijing and Madrid, as well as the Counter-terrorism and Yugoslavia Departments of the Foreign Office in London. I have spent the last twenty years investigating innovation in diplomacy and how technological change is driving geopolitical risk. I have advised companies and governments on how to manage the dynamic uncertainties of the 21st century international environment, as well as teaching in diplomatic academies and financial markets institutes in multiple countries. This has resulted in four books and many articles and book chapters. 

 

The world is rapidly evolving from a unipolar system into what I call asymmetric multipolarity. The US remains the world´s super power but can no longer impose its rules or values. A range of countries, not just China, challenge US hegemony while pursuing their national interests at regional level. The US seems ever less inclined to get involved. The upshot is a world of fluid and short term alliances and regional conflicts. These conflicts are not always military. In an attempt to mitigate the risks of escalation, especially between nuclear powers, governments pursue their geopolitical rivalries through a broad range of areas, including commerce and technology. Companies no longer suffer collateral damage from geopolitical conflicts. They have become the battleground on which they are fought out. 

 

Kissinger once commented that the tragedy of foreign policy is that when you have the greatest freedom of action you have the least information, and when you have the greatest information you have the least freedom of information. The travails of European governments with COVID-19 shows what happens when you wait for the data. Companies and governments must learn to take decision in conditions of uncertainty and with imperfect knowledge. This has always been the experience of the diplomat (and the soldier). This webpage aims to help both governments and companies meet these challenges. The services page details what I can offer clients in terms of company centric geopolitical risk reports, mentoring and training workshops. The Heraclitus blog backs this up with regular short articles exploring the challenges. The publications page offers access to my books and key articles. 

 

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